I’m going to go ahead and make one of my 2008 election predictions here. Obama will not get the Democratic nomination. After winning Iowa, Obama’s campaign adopted the slogan “Yes We Can”, presumably as a rallying cry for current and would be supporters in the face of the daunting task of derailing the Clinton machine (though I’m sure the stated reasons for that slogan have nothing to do with that). Despite that enthusiasm there are several problems with the prospects for an Obama nomination. The most important ones lie in things that can’t be changed by any campaign – demographics and life habits.
The same forces that lifted up Howard Dean early in 2004 have been at work for Obama in 2008. The New Hampshire primary opened my eyes to that and yesterday the Dallas Morning News had two articles that underscored the point. In “Online and involved” and “More going online for political news” Karen Brooks at the Morning News’ Austin Bureau did a good job of laying out how young people are engaging in the political process not by pointing their remote controls, but by pointing their browsers and flipping open their phones.
The numbers are pretty telling. Essentially the point boils down to this – a large and growing segment of the population is not looking to broadcast media for political information, but is instead looking online. Nowhere is this more obvious that the huge shift among the young in media preference. Which brings us back to Obama.
Obamamania and the hype that the Deanie Babies generated to propel Howard Dean early on have this young, Internet-savvy demographic as a key point in common. That new force in the primary electorate amplified the signal that the young voter has always sent – don’t give us a bunch of establishment crap. Furthermore, it has done so early in the process – far earlier than any outsider could have swayed the mainstream media in prior years. The Obama Girl got the word out for Obama via YouTube quickly and cheaply. His email campaigns and communications on MySpace and Facebook are far faster and more efficient than door-to-door shoe leather and direct mail campaigning. It gave Hillary a black eye in Iowa, but it won’t last. As the campaign inevitably goes further among the broader electorate, it leaves the influence of broadband youth and heads squarely into a comparatively more dial-up demographic. YouTube and Facebook might as well not exist in that world, and the voting records will show it.
No, to really make a difference it will take this new phenomenon more time. The percentage of the population using new media to communicate downstream and up will have to get large enough and old enough to ignite the lasting attention of the large and old broadcast media. At that point the young and connected will have a greater effect on the content that everyone else sees each day and their reach will exceed their grasp. It’s going to happen – just not this year. Howard Dean was a portent. Obama shows the trend – and he got really close this time.
How close? Well, put it this way – the average bear would have given up Hillary for dead (right or wrong) had she lost New Hampshire. Obama would have gone from being an interesting phenomenon to a “force” that would have gotten lots more coverage in TV and radio than he already has. That could have tipped it, but it wasn’t to be. Michael Barone, one of the best political analysts this country has ever seen, noted that Obama was ahead in the college towns of New Hampshire but fell behind to Hillary as the urban and poor vote (such that it is there in New Hampshire) swung the balance. There’s a lot more of Hillary’s demographic than Obama’s in the remaining states with large delegate counts and it’s a long way to November.
Obama is a Cinderella Man, and that kind of fighter has to win every match on the way to the title. Lose one and the spell is broken. He lost one, and while he might win some others he won’t win the nomination. Not this year anyway.
