Daily Archives: January 24, 2008

Spreading on American 848

I flew to Atlanta tonight and barely missed being upgraded to first class. Though I was disappointed as I trudged to the rear of the plane, it turned out to be an interesting experience – one that would not have happened if the upgrade had come through.

After the cabin door closed and all of the cell phones were off, two kids across the aisle from me began doing one of the strangest things I’ve ever witnessed. Taking turns, each would speak to the other in a monologue of blinding speed – words strung together so fast that I could only pick out one every few seconds or so. I processed just enough to know that what I was hearing was not gibberish but coherent speech punctuated by sharp, short gasps for breath. It was clear that they were speaking with conviction based on their emphasis and gestures, but they did not look at one another – they looked at or scrawled notes instead. As one spoke in constant flashes of verbal lightning the other was making notes at equal speed in the white space of whatever magazine page they happened to have at the ready. They took a break while the plane was taking off, but got set up to start again right as we leveled out. I couldn’t help it – before they could start again I interrupted and asked what the heck they were doing.

It turns out that they were practicing debate, and I was surrounded.

Across the aisle, right beside me and in seats ahead and behind were kids that are members of the Texas Forensic Association, a debate league. The ones close enough for me to speak to were from Jesuit College Preparatory School and Highland Park High School in Dallas. As I began to ask questions they all chimed in very enthusiastically with answers. These were clearly some of the smartest and most well-spoken teenagers I can ever recall meeting.

They referred to their rapid-fire speech technique as “spreading”, which is intended to cram as many arguments as possible into the time allowed for debate. Speed is crucial in the form of debate that their teams are engaged in, and when one team can out pace an opponents rate of argument in a debate it’s called “spreading out” the competition.

I was hooked. I apologized to the kids up front and proceeded to pepper them with questions for the next hour. Was it only the quantity of arguments that mattered, or was quality considered too? Does everybody talk this fast or just you guys? Who the heck judges this stuff and how do they understand you? How do spectators have any idea what is going on? Who picks the topics? How do you decide which side of an issue you want to take?

It turns out that the judges understand them just fine because they’re accustomed to it. They do score on the quality of arguments in addition to quantity. There are many forms of debate, and several of them involve “normal” modes of speech that an average audience can appreciate. The TFA decides through a somewhat democratic process what the debate topics will be from year-to-year. The teams that the kids are on alternate arguing “for” or “against” a resolution.

They work very hard at what they do. They compete every weekend starting on Friday night and going through Saturday night and sometimes Sunday too. They practice all of the time and the 14 year old freshman seated next to me – we’ll call her Sally – described it as very physically and mentally draining. I’ll believe it. The Senior across the aisle – we’ll call him Paul – seemed more cavalier. Both of them were clearly brilliant. Sally said that there were very few girls in debate and that a double standard reigns in some aspects of scoring. Guys can apparently be “confident” in their style and not be critiqued for it, while if girls are more assertive they are adversely affected in the “style” aspect of scoring. I don’t doubt that those sorts of biases are real. That might hold Sally back a bit in debate from time-to-time, but I doubt much will hold her back in the real world when she gets to apply her intellect to the workplace.

The kids were heading to Atlanta for a tournament this weekend. I was just going home to spend time with my daughter. I couldn’t help but think that she would laugh herself silly if she had heard them “spreading”. She already thinks teenagers are bizarre alien creatures as it is. It’s only a matter of time before she joins the aliens, but as smart as she is I doubt she’ll be a debater. There was a certain intensity to the personality these kids carried that I don’t see my daughter taking up.

What an unusual experience. It made for a short flight.

And the Republican Nominee is…

Tipping points are funny things. The people that can see them coming consistently are as gifted as they are rare. More so than me, for example. Just a week ago I had commented over at the arc of time that I was pretty sure Romney would not take South Carolina and that an open convention for the Republicans was probable. Though I didn’t say it out loud at the time I thought it very possible that Huckabee would take my native state and leave the field wide open going into February. After only a week of additional data I’m prepared to reverse my guess at an open convention and add my second prediction regarding final outcomes in 2008 to the first one that I made here.

With McCain’s victory last Saturday and a couple of news items from this week I’m now convinced that the Republican convention will open with a clearly mandated nominee, and that nominee will probably be John McCain. There are four reasons for this. They are Huckabee, Thompson, Romney and Giuliani.

Although Huckabee has a few delegates at this point he has about the same chances at the nomination as I’ve got at being the first man on Mars. This is lower than you might think because I don’t even want to go there. Contrary to the beliefs of many, Republicans are not all evangelicals that see their party as the Party of God. Many of them, in fact, are closet Libertarians that tolerate their born again brothers in ranks for the sole reason that they have nowhere else to go. They won’t line up alongside the socialists forming a core constituency of the modern Democratic party and they view the “outed” Libertarians as loony birds. These people will not vote for Huckabee under any circumstances, and although there are many other factors that would hold Huckabee back, this by itself locks him out for certain. If Huckabee can’t take South Carolina he sure won’t take many other states.

With Thompson’s post South Carolina announcement of his withdrawal, his chances at the nomination are now only slightly better than Huckabee’s. The more important signal sent here, however, is the last best hopes of the remaining Reagan coalition have been disconnected from life support. The economic and social conservatives that Reagan so effectively united have been cloven apart by Bush over the past eight years and are being kept that way by Huckabee now. Thompson would have done at least a little better were this not true. This bodes poorly for Romney, who sometimes tries to morph into delivering a similar message. That accounts for his limited success thus far, but I think morphing is a fatal problem for Romney. Republicans are inherently suspicious of a man from Massachusetts to start with, and they are very aggrieved with their party’s establishment – Romney looks that part. Also, my sense is that Romney’s veiled yet clear departure into economic populism with auto workers in Michigan is the kind of move that will win some ground at the cost of the nomination. There are more than a few Republicans and Independents that will look sideways at a candidate that appears “nuanced.” Is he Reagan or Roosevelt? Who knows? Does Romney?

Rudy, meanwhile, has thus far executed the riskiest strategy for a real contender that modern politics has ever seen. With the news Monday that McCain is out-polling him in New York and Wednesday that he’s doing the same in California, that strategy appears clearly doomed. I think Rudy would have had a much harder time winning over Huckabee voters than McCain or even Romney anyway.

So, I think McCain probably takes it. I’m not saying that this won’t have its twists and turns or that it won’t be close – Romney looks strong in Florida I hear – but I think it’s McCain. My thoughts with regard to what that means for the White House next January will be coming up soon.